# <!-- METAHEADER
# –––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––– -->
"*": "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/wefindx/schema/master/intent/oo-item.yaml"
# <!-- HEADER
# –––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––– -->
"base:title": "0oo - Existential Risk"
"og:title": "Existential Risk"
"og:description": "Mathematically speaking, risk is [expected loss](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expected_loss), which is the [mean](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mean) of [loss function](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loss_function), which is a form of [product](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lebesgue%E2%80%93Stieltjes_integration) of [probability function](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probability_measure) (a [measure](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Measure_(mathematics))) and the corresponding &lt;u&gt;loss function&lt;/u&gt;. ### What is it? The &lt;u&gt;loss function&lt;/u&gt; has meaning only when there is what to lose. The concept of &quot;existential risk&quot; thus rests upon the hypothesis that (among all the possible alternate futures) there exists a future of abundance of value, and that something can be lost in retrospect. This way we can define a loss with respect to the value of those positive hypothetical futures. For example, at this point, …"
"og:image": "https://avatars0.githubusercontent.com/u/28134655"
"og:url": "/intent/1114/"
"base:css": "/static/css/bootstrap.min.9c25540d6272.css"
"base:extra-css": "/static/css/base.57997aeac1df.css"
"base:favicon": "/static/favicon.acaa334f0136.ico"
"base:body_class": ""
"layout:logo": "/static/0oo.8d2a8bbef612.svg"
"layout:index": "/"
"layout:menu": "/menu/"
"layout:categories": "/intents/"
"layout:ideas": "/methods/"
"layout:projects": "/projects/"
"layout:users": "/users/"
"layout:about": "/about/"
"layout:help": "/help/"
"layout:bug_report": "https://github.com/wefindx/0oo"
"layout:login": "/accounts/login/"
"layout:light-off": "/darken/?darken=true"
"layout:set-multilingual": "/mulang/?mulang=true"
"layout:lang": "Language"
"layout:set-language-post-action": "/i18n/setlang/"
"layout:csrf-token": "TDgBvqc5T0nPglELrk4RRyjFeDHA8tEdpR7ZLs8ISDgm9aU3kntUQxhaDWSCzBzA"
"layout:input-next": "/intent/1114/"
"layout:languages": [{"code": "ja", "is-active": "false", "name": "日本語"}, {"code": "lt", "is-active": "false", "name": "Lietuviškai"}, {"code": "zh-hans", "is-active": "false", "name": "简体中文"}, {"code": "en", "is-active": "true", "name": "English"}, {"code": "ru", "is-active": "false", "name": "Русский"}, {"code": "oo", "is-active": "false", "name": "O;o,"}]
# <!-- TOPIC
# –––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––– -->
"item:parent:intents": [{"title": "Society", "url": "/intent/1221/"}, {"title": "Frontier Science and Technology", "url": "/intent/1364/"}, {"title": "Human", "url": "/intent/995/"}]
"item:title": ".:en:Existential Risk.:cn:生存危机.:lt:Egzistencinė rizika.:ja:存亡の危機.:ru:Экзистенциальные риски"
"item:votes": 0
"item:add-vote": "#addnote"
"item:intent": "/intent/1114/?l=en"
"item:base-administration": false
"item:body": |
    .:en
    Mathematically speaking, risk is [expected loss](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expected_loss), which is the [mean](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mean) of [loss function](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loss_function), which is a form of [product](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lebesgue%E2%80%93Stieltjes_integration) of [probability function](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probability_measure) (a [measure](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Measure_(mathematics))) and the corresponding <u>loss function</u>.
    
    ### What is it?
    
    The <u>loss function</u> has meaning only when there is what to lose. The concept of "existential risk" thus rests upon the hypothesis that (among all the possible alternate futures) there exists a future of abundance of value, and that something can be lost in retrospect. This way we can define a loss with respect to the value of those positive hypothetical futures.
    
    For example, at this point, as we do not know of any other intelligent life except the Earth's and find it hard to estimate the complexity of life formation out of inanimate matter, it seems to us that we are "Universe's only chance" for intelligence (as we are the only example of intelligent life we know of). Imagining what Earth's life could do if it were to spread to the Universe − _how many wonders it may create, how many individual conscious experiences it may create using the existing physical matter and energy_ − gives us an estimate of possible future value from the seed of life on Earth.
    
    With this knowledge then, Earth's life appears to us extremely precious, that, if it were to go extinct like dinosaurs had gone extinct, we would be very sorry to have lost those imaginary possible future wonders that it may create (wonderful structures, conscious experiences and thoughts of life made from matter available in reachable Universe) of tremendous value. This worry about the loss of future wonders of life defines existential risks.
    
    The risk perception would change dramatically, if we were to find a simple way to synthesize life from inanimate matter, or if we were to discover another intelligent space-faring civilization, making our contribution less significant, but as long as we [do not know](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermi_paradox) of any, our estimate of possible loss is "over the roof" (tends to infinity) because we imagine that our life could create so much, if it were given a chance to continue developing.
    
    This way, our existential hopes (amazingly optimistic, positive future visions) creates the worries of their loss: the existential risks.
    
    ### What to fear?
    
    Many may think humanity is so full of people, that it's highly unlikely that we would go extinct, and so it's very unlikely that the future would be lost. In fact, many of us dreamers think the same, and think of the creative positive side most of the time. However, with the imagined possible future value (just think how much matter in the Universe there is to be converted to consciousness) in mind, even a very small possibility of failure to realize those dreams makes the risk estimate go to infinity, and therefore, actions to reduce that appear very valuable, like the only logical thing to focus on. There are many things that may pose risk, even for an entire life on Earth:
    
    - Asteroids
    - Supervolcanos
    - Gamma ray bursts
    - Runaway climate change
    - Superintelligence gone wrong
    - (many others)
    
    If any of the bad scenarios happen, the Earth may not have another chance to evolve high intelligence before the Sun is too hot.
    
    Luckily, we have ideas to address those various possible issues, yet time keeps ticking and we are not yet prepared and not diversified beyond Earth. So, this is an issue to keep long-term dreamers sane and working towards **the security of the potential of life**.
    .:cn
    从数学上讲，风险就是[预期损失](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expected_loss)，也就是[损失函数](https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E6%8D%9F%E5%A4%B1%E5%87%BD%E6%95%B0)的[平均值](https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E5%B9%B3%E5%9D%87%E6%95%B0)，它是[概率测度](https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E6%A6%82%E7%8E%87%E6%B5%8B%E5%BA%A6)（一种[度量](https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E6%B5%8B%E5%BA%A6)）和相应的损失函数（定义事件概率函数中概率的事件因子）的[乘积形式](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lebesgue%E2%80%93Stieltjes_integration)。
    
    ###那是什么？
    
    损失函数仅在有损失的情况下才有意义。因此，"生存危机"的概念基于这样的假设：（在所有可能的替代未来中）存在一个价值丰厚的未来可以回溯损失。我们可以针对这个假设的价值定义一个损失。
    
    例如目前，由于我们不了解地球以外的任何其他智能生命，而且很难估计从无生命物质中形成生命的复杂性，因此在我们看来，我们是“宇宙唯一”的智能机会（因为我们是我们所知道的智能生命的唯一例子）。想象一下，如果地球生命扩散到宇宙，它能做什么——它可能会创造多少奇迹，它可能会利用现有的物理物质和能量创造多少个体的意识体验——让我们对地球生命种子未来可能的价值有一个估计。
    
    有了这些知识，地球的生命对我们来说就显得极为珍贵，如果它像恐龙一样灭绝了，我们就会非常遗憾地失去那些想象中的未来可能创造的奇迹（在可到达的宇宙中用现有物质制造的生命的奇妙结构、意识经验和思想）的巨大价值。这种对未来生命奇迹丧失的担忧，定义了生存危机。
    
    如果我们找到从无生命物质合成生命的简单方法，或发现了另一种智能航天文明，风险认知会发生戏剧性变化，使我们的贡献变得不那么重要，但只要我们不知道有这样的文明（[费米悖论](https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E8%B4%B9%E7%B1%B3%E6%82%96%E8%AE%BA)），我们对可能损失的估计都是“过度”（趋向于无穷大）的，因为我们想象如果有机会继续发展，我们的生命可以创造如此之多。
    
    这样一来我们的生存希望（惊人乐观、积极的未来愿景）就会产生对其损失的担忧：生存危机。
    
    ###担心什么？
    
    很多人可能会认为人类这么多，我们灭绝的可能性很小，所以失去未来的可能性也很小。其实，我们很多人的梦想是相同的。然而，想象中未来可能的价值（想想宇宙中有多少物质可以转化为意识就知道了），哪怕是很小的可能性不能实现这些梦想，也会让风险估计达到无穷大，因此，减少这种风险的行动似乎是唯一合乎逻辑、值得关注的事情。有很多事情可能会带来风险，甚至对整个地球的生命都有影响：
    
    - 小行星
    - 超级火山
    - 伽马射线暴
    - 失控的气候变化
    - 超级智能出了问题
    - (很多其他问题)
    
    任何一种不好的情况发生都可能让地球在太阳过热之前就没有机会再进化出高智能了。
    
    幸运的是，我们有想法解决这些各种可能出现的问题，然而时间流逝，我们还没有做好准备，也没有在地球之外实现多元化。所以，这是一个让长期梦想者保持清醒，并努力保全生命潜能的问题。
"item:permalink": "/intent/1114/?l=en"
"item:source-date": ""
"item:owner": "Mindey"
"item:ownerlink": "/user/147/Mindey"
"item:created": "2020-02-28T21:43:15.708000"
"item:intent:child:add": "/admin/hlog/intent/add/?parent=1114"
# <!-- LINKS
# –––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––– -->
"item:method:items":
  - "id": "i-1021"
    "title": "Dark Conference"
    "summary": "An anti-thesis of TED: A Conferenece On &quot;Ideas worth NOT spreading&quot;"
    "url": "/method/1021/"
    "owner": "Mindey"
    "permalink": "/intent/1114/?l=en#i-1021"
    "ownerlink": "/user/147/Mindey"
    "created": "2020-12-15T14:15:42.105000"
"item:method:add": "/admin/hlog/method/add/?parent=1114"
"item:comment:add": "/intents/addnote?parent=1114"
"item:comment:add:csrf_token": "TDgBvqc5T0nPglELrk4RRyjFeDHA8tEdpR7ZLs8ISDgm9aU3kntUQxhaDWSCzBzA"
"item:comment:form": |
    <li> <textarea name="text" cols="40" rows="10" id="addnote" class="comment-textarea" required>
    </textarea></li>
    <li><label for="id_vote">Vote:</label> <select name="vote" id="id_vote">
      <option value="-1">[−]</option>
      <option value="0" selected>-</option>
      <option value="1">[+]</option>
    </select></li>
    <li><label for="id_crawl">Silently:</label> <input type="checkbox" name="crawl" onchange="handleSilently(this)" id="id_crawl"></li>
    <li><label for="id_has_questions">Questions:</label> <input type="checkbox" name="has_questions" id="id_has_questions"> <span class="helptext">Mark if the comment raises new questions.</span></li>
    <li><label for="id_has_ideas">Ideas:</label> <input type="checkbox" name="has_ideas" id="id_has_ideas"> <span class="helptext">Mark if the comment contributes potential solutions.</span></li>
    <li><label for="id_has_facts">Facts:</label> <input type="checkbox" name="has_facts" id="id_has_facts"> <span class="helptext">Mark if the comment contributes facts for reasoning.</span></li>
    <a href="/accounts/login/">Please, <u>log in</u>.</a>
# <!-- COMMENTS
# –––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––– -->
"item:comment:items":
"base:js": "/static/js/base.c7357c06cc89.js"